Archive 2015

• 31.12.2015

  Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine - Christmas Budget

  Real GDP is expected to grow by 2% next year if our major assumptions hold. In particular, we assume that the IMF Program will continue and Parliament will continue implementing agreed reforms.
  Issue:  No.12 (99) December 2015
• 01.12.2015

  Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine - Tax reform is on agenda

  Economy likely passed the bottom in the third quarter but real GDP will still fall by 11% in 2015. If most of our assumptions hold, real GDP is expected to grow by over 2% in 2016.
  Issue:  No.11 (98) November 2015
• 03.11.2015

  Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine - Some growth in 2016

  In the second half of 2015, economy stabilised and bounced back slightly from lows observed in the first half of the year. Inflation slowed down and exchange rate remained under control. We expect that contraction of economic activity will decelerate further by the end of year.
  Issue:  No.10 (97) October 2015
• 01.10.2015

  Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine - Tax reform is in agenda

  Real GDP is likely to decline by 10-11% in 2015, as we indicated in August. In particular, domestic demand recovers at a slower space, while external demand remains weak. However, economy likely passed the bottom in the third quarter and if most of our assumptions hold, real GDP is expected to grow by over 2% in 2016. Announced for next year tax reform is not likely to affect economic situation substantially in 2016. In the medium run, promised reduction of some taxes, uniform rates and fair tax administration might improve investment climate and boost economic growth.
  Issue:  No.9 (96) September 2015
• 01.09.2015

  Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine - Stability in stagnation

  Real GDP will likely start to recover later than expected due to low domestic demand and weakness in external demand from emerging markets. Real GDP fell by 14.7% yoy in the second quarter and economic activity in July was stable but weak. Thus, we will likely revise our projection of 2015 GDP decline to over 10%. If our major assumptions hold real GDP is expected to increase by over 2% in 2016. Escalation of war and populist decisions remain the major risks of the forecast.
  Issue:  No.8 (95) August 2015
• 03.08.2015

  Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine - A degree of stability remains

  Recent Ukrstat data confirm that Ukrainian economy stabilized to some degree over the last few months. Inflation went down, exchange rate fluctuated within narrow range, retail sales and industrial production stopped falling. This is expected to allow economic activity to increase slightly in the second half of 2015 and limit the drop in GDP to around 9%.
  Issue:  No.7 (94) July 2015
• 06.07.2015

  Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine - Threats to economic recovery remain high

  The IER revised its forecast to take into account higher inflation and lower exports in the first half of 2015. Real GDP is expected to decline by 9.2% in 2015 and grow by 2.1% in 2016 under assumptions of stabilisation in the Eastern Ukraine and fulfilment of reform program.
  Issue:  No.6 (93) June 2015
• 02.06.2015

  Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine - Economy reached the bottom

  Recent Ukrstat data indicate that Ukrainian economy likely reached the bottom and is likely to stabilize in the second half of the year.
  Issue:  No.5 (92) May 2015
• 03.05.2015

  Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine - Stabilization and slow reforms

  Ukraine’s economy stabilized over the last two months but at a lower level than we previously expected. We expect economic activity to increase gradually over the next months and macroeconomic situation to stabilize
  Issue:  No.4 (91) April 2015
• 15.04.2015

  Monthly Economic Monitor Ukraine No.4 (174)

  In March, Ukraine’s government adopted the Action plan for reforms in 2015 and 2016 while the IMF board approved four-year USD 17.5 bn extended arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF).
  
  Highlight: REFORM AGENDA

  Issue:  No.4 (174) March 2015
• 06.04.2015

  Stabilisation is near but growth is far

  The economic situation in Ukraine in 2015 and 2016 will depend on progress in externally supported reform program and on stabilization in the Eastern Ukraine. To take into account higher than expected hryvnia depreciation and resulting inflation in the first quarter of 2015 the IER revised its forecast of real GDP.
  Issue:  No.3 (90) March 2015
  Authors:  Stepaniuk Oleksa, Ryzhenkov Mykola, Kovalchuk Artur, Betliy Oleksandra, Kravchuk Vitaliy
• 27.02.2015

  Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine – Is there any light in the tunnel?

  The instability in the Ukraine’s economy increased. Low international reserves do not allow the NBU to effectively intervene in the interbank foreign exchange market, which suffers from low FX supply against the background of exports decline, panic and speculations. As a result, hryvnia exchange rate sharply depreciated putting additional pressure on budget due to large share of FX debt. To secure the economic development the Government faces the necessity to implement immediate steps aimed primarily at the fiscal consolidation measures. Otherwise, it might lose a chance to ensure stabilization of Ukraine’s economy and to spark recovery in 2016.

  Issue:  No.2 (89) February 2015
  Authors:  Kravchuk Vitaliy, Betliy Oleksandra, Kovalchuk Artur, Ryzhenkov Mykola, Stepaniuk Oleksa