Real GDP will likely start to recover later than expected due to low domestic demand and weakness in external demand from emerging markets. Real GDP fell by 14.7% yoy in the second quarter and economic activity in July was stable but weak. Thus, we will likely revise our projection of 2015 GDP decline to over 10%. If our major assumptions hold real GDP is expected to increase by over 2% in 2016. Escalation of war and populist decisions remain the major risks of the forecast.