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Working Paper

  • 18.11.2004

    RASMU: Regional Agricultural Sector Model for Ukraine

    (Code:27)

    Ukraine's agriculture seems to have overcome the worst phase of the transition period and has started to increase its overall output in a more reliable economic and institutional environment. This latter fact makes the sector-specific impacts of external shocks and policy interventions more predictable. At the same time Ukrainian agricultural policy is using increasingly differentiated instruments to achieve a broad variety of goals, e.g. support producer incomes, use of existing production capacities, price stabilisation, food security, development of the processing industry, or compliance with WTO rules. The impact of such policies is often difficult to anticipate without the support of a numerical simulation model.

    The development of the Regional Agricultural Sector Model for Ukraine (RASMU) offers the opportunity to analyse a broad variety of existing or planned policy measures within a simplified, consistent framework regarding quantities and prices. In its current version, RASMU comprises 27 raw and processed products, whose production, consumption and trade is modelled. Regarding the spatial dimension, the oblasts of Ukraine are aggregated into four representative regions, which trade among each other and the rest of the world. This regional partition is variable and can easily be changed in order to facilitate the analysis of policy measures aimed at regions with certain characteristics.

    This paper is organised as follows: chapter 2 outlines and discusses the general features of RASMU, while chapter 3 delivers a detailed documentation of the model’s content and algebraic design. Chapter 4 describes the derivation of parameters and the set-up of the base run. Chapter 5 presents an exemplary simulation exercise, and chapter 6 gives an outlook on future modelling developments.

    Attached file  (116.5 kb)
    Authors:  Kuhn Arnim
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