Special researches

  • 04.10.2006

    Tax Revenue Outlook for Ukraine No.2 (4)

    The period to which the poll:  2006 and 2007
    Poll period:  October 2006

    Between January and September the government has received UAH 16.3 bn from the EPT that is 87% of projected value for the period. The weight of EPT revenue in GDP has declined to 4.8%, which is lower than in the same period of 2005. It follows the IER forecast concerning the EPT revenues under-execution in 2006. Lower profits of enterprises and, thus, the EPT revenues in 2006 are to the large extent explained by increased gas prices and the continued wages growth backed by administrative rises in minimum wages. At the same time, the drop in enterprises’ profits appeared to be smaller than it was previously expected, first of all due to smaller effect on overall economic growth from the gas price hike. In particular, the profits of metallurgical and chemical enterprises, expected be the most hampered by the gas price shock, were partially preserved thanks to the growth of world prices on metals and chemical products. That allowed the IER to revise the EPT estimate for 2006 upwards. It is estimated that the nominal revenues from EPT will reach UAH 24.4 bn (4.7% of GDP) in 2006. Thus, likely under-execution of the government plan of the EPT revenues will at UAH 1.1 bn or 0.2% of GDP, compared to the UAH 1.6 bn under-execution projected in May.

    Authors:  Betliy Oleksandra, , г
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