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Last publications

• 30.04.2014

  Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine – monthly issue

  According to the flash estimate real GDP declined by 1.1% in the first quarter of 2014 in response to falling investments and government consumption. Investments were likely to be weak due to financial constraints as well as high political and economic uncertainty.

  Category:  Forecast
• 16.04.2014

  Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine – quarterly issue - Growth delayed for another year

  The Institute expects real GDP of Ukraine (including Crimea) to drop by 3.5% in 2014. However, risks remain high as Russian annexation of Crimea and Russian-provoked unrest in the Eastern, make Ukraine’s future highly uncertain.

  Category:  Forecast
• 03.03.2014

  Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine – monthly issue

  The outlook of future economic development in Ukraine is highly uncertain. Political situation remains very fragile. Assuming political uncertainty is resolved external aid will likely help stabilize situation in economy.

  Category:  Forecast
• 03.02.2014

  Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine – monthly issue

  According to the preliminary Ukrstat estimate real GDP growth was at zero in 2013, while we expected real GDP to decline by 0.4%. In particular, real GDP grew sharply in the fourth quarter of 2013 (by 3.7% yoy), which was higher than we expected.

  Category:  Forecast
• 03.01.2014

  Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine – quarterly issue - Some growth in 2014

  Real GDP is estimated to grow in the last quarter of 2013 after five quarters of decline. On the production side, growth was supported by strong growth of agriculture due to record grain harvest. On the demand side, growth was supported by positive contribution of real final private consumption and of lower decrease in inventories. Still, real GDP is expected to decline by 0.4% in 2013.

  Category:  Forecast
• 01.11.2013

  Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine – monthly issue

  According to Ukrstat preliminary estimate GDP fell by 1.5% yoy in the third quarter of 2013 reflecting low external demand for key Ukrainian exports, trade disruptions with Russia and large delay in harvesting crops during rainy September.

  Category:  Forecast
• 01.10.2013

  Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine – monthly issue

  Due to likely trade tensions with Russia, continued recession in the third quarter and absence of expected reforms the IER estimate of real GDP growth in 2013 and 2014 seems to be too optimistic. In particular, if trade pressure by Russia will increase in November, real GDP is likely to decline in 2013 and grow at near 1% in 2014.

  Category:  Forecast
• 18.09.2013

  Quarterly Enterprise Survey No.3 (45)

  In July the Industrial Confidence Indicator has decreased compared to April (from 0.07 to 0.02). It has happened because of the reduction of the component “Expected production level” from 0.47 to 0.02.

  Category:  Business surveys: industry
• 02.09.2013

  Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine – monthly issue

  According to the Government real GDP grew by near 2.4% yoy in July after declining by 1.1% yoy in the first half of the year. Growth was attributed to retail trade growth and sharp increase in agricultural output. These sectors are likely to support growth in the rest of the year.

  Category:  Forecast
• 22.08.2013

  Quarterly Bank Survey No.2 (16)

  Banks assessed business climate negatively in the 2nd quarter of 2013. As it was at the beginning of the year, none of the banks evaluates business climate positively in July 2013. As they did in February, in July 70% of banks consider overall economic situation satisfactory, and 30% think it is negative.

  Category:  Business surveys: banks