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Monthly economic monitoring	Business surveys: industry
Business surveys: banks	Business surveys: services sector
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Last publications

• 20.11.2014

  Quarterly Bank Survey No.1 (17)

  Negative assessment dominates banks' opinion about business climate in the 2nd quarter of 2014. 63.6% of banks consider business climate in Ukraine bad, and the remaining 36.4% regard it as satisfactory. None of the banks assessed business climate positively. As a result, the index of business climate assessment fell to -0.64 in the summer of 2014 from the last year's level of 0.3.

  Category:  Business surveys: banks
• 03.11.2014

  Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine – monthly issue

  According to “flash” estimate real GDP declined by 5.1% yoy in the third quarter of 2014, which is less than we expected. On demand side, real private final consumption might have been higher than estimated by the IER.

  Category:  Forecast
• 01.10.2014

  Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine – quarterly issue - Rough times ahead

  The Institute revised downwards the forecast for 2014 and 2015 to take into account increasingly devastating effects of prolonged military conflict in Donbas. Real GDP is expected to decline by 7.6% in 2014 and 2.2% in 2015. GDP projected for the next year represents significant improvement of economic activity as compared to the second half of 2014 and we expect that most regions of Ukraine will be able to increase their output in the 2015.

  Category:  Forecast
• 01.09.2014

  Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine – monthly issue

  The military conflict in the Eastern Ukraine has escalated in the end of August and its resolution becomes more distant. This means that our assumption of the post-war stabilization in the last quarter of 2014 will likely not hold unless political solution will be found in the next weeks.

  Category:  Forecast
• 01.08.2014

  Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine – monthly issue

  In the second half of 2014 we expect economic downturn to deepen due to prolonged conflict in Eastern Ukraine and related damage to infrastructure. Fiscal tightening approved to comply with IMF program will also impact economic activity. Real GDP may fall by 6-7% yoy in the second half of the year after real GDP fell by 3% yoy between January and June. Exchange rate will appreciate slightly after conflict ends in the Eastern Ukraine.

  Category:  Forecast
• 03.07.2014

  Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine – quarterly issue - Risks of the forecast remain high

  Real GDP is expected to decline by 3.5% in 2014. Crucial assumption that makes our forecast possible is that unrest in the Eastern part of Ukraine will calm down by the end of summer and the confrontation with Russia will not reach open war.

  Category:  Forecast
• 02.06.2014

  Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine – monthly issue

  According to the recent consensus forecast, which was compiled by the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade in the beginning of May, real GDP is expected to drop by 4.6% in 2014. This is more pessimistic forecast that the IER’s estimate of 3.3% drop. In particular, we expect larger positive contribution of net real exports to real GDP growth.

  Category:  Forecast
• 12.05.2014

  Year 2013: Economic Summary for Ukraine "Recession, no reforms, no Association with the EU"

  Real GDP in 2013 remained at the level of 2012 as positive contribution of domestic demand to economic growth was outweighed by negative contribution of net real exports. Decline in investments undermines economic growth in the future. During the year the Government did not approve reforms for fiscal consolidation and improvement of business climate and, as a result, failed to negotiate new IMF program. The Government faced huge liquidity gap in the end of the year, which resulted in delays in financing all expenditures including even wages and social payments. In the end of the year, Ukraine did not sign Association Agreement with the EU and negotiated for closer relations with Russia, which triggered political crisis in the country.

  Category:  Economic results of year
• 30.04.2014

  Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine – monthly issue

  According to the flash estimate real GDP declined by 1.1% in the first quarter of 2014 in response to falling investments and government consumption. Investments were likely to be weak due to financial constraints as well as high political and economic uncertainty.

  Category:  Forecast
• 16.04.2014

  Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine – quarterly issue - Growth delayed for another year

  The Institute expects real GDP of Ukraine (including Crimea) to drop by 3.5% in 2014. However, risks remain high as Russian annexation of Crimea and Russian-provoked unrest in the Eastern, make Ukraine’s future highly uncertain.

  Category:  Forecast