Regular products

Economic results of year	Forecast
Monthly economic monitoring	Business surveys: industry
Business surveys: banks	Business surveys: services sector
Barometer land reform	News WTO members
Infrastructure monitoring

Last publications

• 01.10.2015

  Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine - Tax reform is in agenda

  Real GDP is likely to decline by 10-11% in 2015, as we indicated in August. In particular, domestic demand recovers at a slower space, while external demand remains weak. However, economy likely passed the bottom in the third quarter and if most of our assumptions hold, real GDP is expected to grow by over 2% in 2016. Announced for next year tax reform is not likely to affect economic situation substantially in 2016. In the medium run, promised reduction of some taxes, uniform rates and fair tax administration might improve investment climate and boost economic growth.
  Category:  Forecast
• 01.09.2015

  Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine - Stability in stagnation

  Real GDP will likely start to recover later than expected due to low domestic demand and weakness in external demand from emerging markets. Real GDP fell by 14.7% yoy in the second quarter and economic activity in July was stable but weak. Thus, we will likely revise our projection of 2015 GDP decline to over 10%. If our major assumptions hold real GDP is expected to increase by over 2% in 2016. Escalation of war and populist decisions remain the major risks of the forecast.
  Category:  Forecast
• 03.08.2015

  Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine - A degree of stability remains

  Recent Ukrstat data confirm that Ukrainian economy stabilized to some degree over the last few months. Inflation went down, exchange rate fluctuated within narrow range, retail sales and industrial production stopped falling. This is expected to allow economic activity to increase slightly in the second half of 2015 and limit the drop in GDP to around 9%.
  Category:  Forecast
• 28.07.2015

  Year 2014: Economic Summary for Ukraine "A year of crisis and new opportunities "

  In 2014, Ukraine faced the toughest challenges in the XXI century including economic crisis, military conflict in the East, and annexation of Crimea by Russia. Drop in domestic demand and weak external demand resulted in contraction of real GDP by 6.8%. High economic and political uncertainty resulted in sharp increase in demand for foreign currency. This along with decline in exports lead to sharp hryvnia depreciation.

  Category:  Economic results of year
• 06.07.2015

  Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine - Threats to economic recovery remain high

  The IER revised its forecast to take into account higher inflation and lower exports in the first half of 2015. Real GDP is expected to decline by 9.2% in 2015 and grow by 2.1% in 2016 under assumptions of stabilisation in the Eastern Ukraine and fulfilment of reform program.
  Category:  Forecast
• 02.06.2015

  Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine - Economy reached the bottom

  Recent Ukrstat data indicate that Ukrainian economy likely reached the bottom and is likely to stabilize in the second half of the year.
  Category:  Forecast
• 03.05.2015

  Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine - Stabilization and slow reforms

  Ukraine’s economy stabilized over the last two months but at a lower level than we previously expected. We expect economic activity to increase gradually over the next months and macroeconomic situation to stabilize
  Category:  Forecast
• 06.04.2015

  Stabilisation is near but growth is far

  The economic situation in Ukraine in 2015 and 2016 will depend on progress in externally supported reform program and on stabilization in the Eastern Ukraine. To take into account higher than expected hryvnia depreciation and resulting inflation in the first quarter of 2015 the IER revised its forecast of real GDP.
  Category:  Forecast
• 27.02.2015

  Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine – Is there any light in the tunnel?

  The instability in the Ukraine’s economy increased. Low international reserves do not allow the NBU to effectively intervene in the interbank foreign exchange market, which suffers from low FX supply against the background of exports decline, panic and speculations. As a result, hryvnia exchange rate sharply depreciated putting additional pressure on budget due to large share of FX debt. To secure the economic development the Government faces the necessity to implement immediate steps aimed primarily at the fiscal consolidation measures. Otherwise, it might lose a chance to ensure stabilization of Ukraine’s economy and to spark recovery in 2016.

  Category:  Forecast
• 02.02.2015

  Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine – quarterly issue - Long path to recovery

  Military conflict in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts (Donbas) is assumed to continue at least until the end of 2016. As a result, economic activity in the region will be depressed over the two years, while infrastructure will be restored only partially in the end of 2016. Many companies will remain closed and supply links will remain disrupted limiting potential for recovery. Trade with Russia is expected to fall further. Very limited financing options contribute to lower investments in 2015 and allow for only small increase in 2016, when political and economic uncertainty will somewhat reduce.

  Category:  Forecast