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Last publications

• 02.06.2016

  Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine - Road to recovery continues

  Real GDP growth in 2016 is unlikely to exceed 2%. External conditions were favourable for exports in April and May but they probably would not become much better over the rest of 2016. Inflation forecast may need to be revised to account for higher than projected increase in gas, water and heating tariffs but effect would likely be muted.
  Category:  Forecast
• 04.05.2016

  Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine - 2017 recovery in Ukraine

  We expect slow but steady recovery to take hold in 2017. However, there are many risks of the forecast.
  Category:  Forecast
• 04.04.2016

  Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine - Stable instability

  We expect to revise 2016 real GDP growth forecast down to 1-1.5%. This reflects adjustments related to release of 2015 GDP and effects of recent exchange rate volatility on domestic demand. Political instability remains a source of downward risk for the forecast. While moderate amounts of political infighting are part of our base scenario, long-term political crisis may be more damaging as it may hurt confidence, delay reform agenda and derail cooperation with international donors.
  Category:  Forecast
• 02.03.2016

  Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine - Political uncertainty increases risks for growth

  Our outlook for 2017 remains currently unchanged. Real GDP is forecasted to grow by 3.2% due to increase in both external and domestic demand. However, political uncertainty made downward risk for the forecast more severe
  Category:  Forecast
• 08.02.2016

  Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine - Recovery on the horizon

  The beginning of 2016 is associated with downward trend for prices on commodities, which puts additional pressure on Ukraine’s exports. Decline in prices for imported crude oil and gas does not compensate for lower nominal exports, which results in higher than previously expected exchange rate vulnerability. Demand for foreign currency also increased due to high fiscal spending in the end of 2015 as well as increased depreciation expectations associated with crash in global stock markets and stalled IMF program.
  Category:  Forecast
• 31.12.2015

  Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine - Christmas Budget

  Real GDP is expected to grow by 2% next year if our major assumptions hold. In particular, we assume that the IMF Program will continue and Parliament will continue implementing agreed reforms.
  Category:  Forecast
• 01.12.2015

  Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine - Tax reform is on agenda

  Economy likely passed the bottom in the third quarter but real GDP will still fall by 11% in 2015. If most of our assumptions hold, real GDP is expected to grow by over 2% in 2016.
  Category:  Forecast
• 03.11.2015

  Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine - Some growth in 2016

  In the second half of 2015, economy stabilised and bounced back slightly from lows observed in the first half of the year. Inflation slowed down and exchange rate remained under control. We expect that contraction of economic activity will decelerate further by the end of year.
  Category:  Forecast
• 01.10.2015

  Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine - Tax reform is in agenda

  Real GDP is likely to decline by 10-11% in 2015, as we indicated in August. In particular, domestic demand recovers at a slower space, while external demand remains weak. However, economy likely passed the bottom in the third quarter and if most of our assumptions hold, real GDP is expected to grow by over 2% in 2016. Announced for next year tax reform is not likely to affect economic situation substantially in 2016. In the medium run, promised reduction of some taxes, uniform rates and fair tax administration might improve investment climate and boost economic growth.
  Category:  Forecast
• 01.09.2015

  Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine - Stability in stagnation

  Real GDP will likely start to recover later than expected due to low domestic demand and weakness in external demand from emerging markets. Real GDP fell by 14.7% yoy in the second quarter and economic activity in July was stable but weak. Thus, we will likely revise our projection of 2015 GDP decline to over 10%. If our major assumptions hold real GDP is expected to increase by over 2% in 2016. Escalation of war and populist decisions remain the major risks of the forecast.
  Category:  Forecast