Executive Summary
• According to the IER estimate, real GDP increased by 1.8% yoy in 2025.
• According to our current estimate, real GDP increased by 5.2% yoy in November and 3.4% yoy in December, due to a positive contribution from agriculture.
• Large-scale power outages in Odesa, Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts.
• In December, Ukraine increased electricity imports by 53% mom, to nearly 640 thousand MWh, with no electricity exports.
• As of January 12, Ukraine's underground gas storage facilities held 7.21 bn cubic meters of natural gas (available gas excluding technical gas), which is 13% less mom.
• Since its launch in 2023, the Ukrainian maritime corridor has transported over 163 m tonnes of cargo, including approximately 100 m t of agricultural products.
• In 2025, the railway transported 28.9 m tonnes of grain, of which over 25 m tonnes went toward ports and the western border; this is 27.3% less than in 2024.
• Imports hit a record high in December, surpassing December 2021 levels even taking into account US inflation
• There is a risk to the timely start of a new IMF programme.
• The EU presented a new Ukraine support programme, providing EUR 60 bn in military assistance and EUR 30 bn in budget financing for 2026–2027. The Government needs to develop the Ukrainian Financing Strategy.
• In 2025, inflation slowed to 8.0% yoy.
• The hryvnia depreciated against the US dollar and the euro.
