Executive Summary
- IER estimates real GDP growth at 1.7% yoy in Q2 2025.
- In July, electricity exports grew by 16% mom – to 282 thousand MWh.
- Gas injection into UGS facilities was 1.69 bcm (+25% mom), reserves exceeded 10 bcm.
- On August 6, navigation through the Bystre channel resumed.
- In July, Ukrzaliznytsia transported 1,241 thousand tons of grain cargo, which is half of what was transported in July 2024.
- Imports approached a record high in July amid an increase in imports of cars, energy equipment, gas and imports for defense.
- Delay in the disbursement of EU funds and a possible new IMF program are among the new challenges in international cooperation.
- In July, year-on-year inflation slowed to 14.1% yoy, and monthly inflation was negative for the first time in two years.
- The NBU kept the key policy rate at 15.5% per annum, but worsened its forecasts for inflation and economic growth.
