Executive summary
- According to the Ukrstat, real GDP grew by 2.9% in 2024.
- According to the IER estimate, real GDP grew by only 1.1% yoy in the first quarter of 2025.
- Naftogaz Group has recovered half of the gas production lost due to enemy attacks in February.
- In March, Ukraine increased electricity imports by 11% to 272 thousand MWh.
- In the first quarter of 2025, Ukrainian ports handled 23 m t of cargo, 17% less than in 2024.
- Exports of goods in March increased by 11% yoy, and imports increased by 26% yoy.
- Ukraine received high international aid flows in March, primarily under the ERA mechanism.
- In March, inflation accelerated to 1.5% mom due to seasonal and one-time factors, but the increase in prices for most goods and services remained moderate.
- The NBU, as expected, left the rate at 15.5% per annum and lowered its forecast for GDP growth this year to 3.1%. That is consistent with the IER estimates.
- The hryvnia further strengthened against the US dollar but weakened against the euro.
