Summary
• The IER estimates real GDP growth at 3.5% in 2024. According to the current IER forecast, real GDP will grow by 2.9% in 2025 and 3.2% in 2026.
• According to the IER, real GDP grew by 2.0% yoy in January (by 1.6% yoy in December).
• In early February, power outages began for industry and businesses during peak hours due to russian attacks on energy infrastructure.
• Naftogaz began importing gas due to a cold snap, the suspension of russian gas transit to the EU, and shelling of gas infrastructure.
• In January, Ukraine exported 6.6 m t of goods by sea and 14 m t by rail.
• There was a seasonal decline in imports and a slowdown in exports in January.
• In January, the government received EUR 3 bn from the EU under the ERA (Extraordinary Revenue Acceleration) mechanism, which should be repaid from profits from russian assets frozen in the EU.
• In January, consumer inflation in annual terms further accelerated and reached 12.9% yoy.
• The NBU raised the rate from 13.5% to 14.5% per annum due to further acceleration in inflation and deterioration in inflation expectations.
• The NBU's international reserves amounted to USD 43 bn at the end of January, which is slightly less than USD 43.8 bn at the beginning of the year.
