January 2024
Summary
- According to the IER, real GDP growth slowed from 3.5% yoy in November to 2.6% yoy in December. As a result, according to our calculations, real GDP grew by 4.9% in 2023.
- Electricity consumption has increased due to the onset of cold weather, with imports and emergency assistance covering the deficit.
- The Ukrainian sea corridor works better than the "grain deal" – the ports of Odesa region handled 15% more cargo in 2023 than in 2022.
- The strike of Polish carriers hinders Ukraine's foreign trade.
- The goods trade deficit was record-high at USD 27.3 bn in 2023 amid declining exports and growing imports.
- The receipt of international aid in the form of grants supported the revenues of the State Budget in 2023. Revenues from most taxes were lower than planned.
- The EU and the US have not yet decided on the assistance to Ukraine in 2024.
- At the end of 2023, consumer inflation remained at 5.1% yoy despite some weakening of the hryvnia.
- The hryvnia weakened in December amid record demand for cash currency since the start ofthe war and seasonal growth in imports.
- The NBU cut the key policy rate to 15% p.a. in December, butitmay refrain from significantly reducing the rate in 2024
