The IER has released the new issue of the Macroeconomic Monitoring of Ukraine (MEMU), which outlines key figures, trends, and events of September 2023.
Resume
- According to the State Statistics Service, real GDP in the second quarter grew by 19.5% yoy (year over year) due to the recovery of economic sectors from the low base of 2022.
- Due to high harvesting compared to last year and further recovery of other sectors of the economy, real GDP grew by 12% yoy in September, according to the IER estimate.
- Ukraine resumed electricity exports in September, as electricity production increased due to the completion of repairs of several power units and good weather.
- The Armed Forces of Ukraine, together with international partners, have provided a humanitarian corridor for the transportation of goods from the seaports of Odesa: 20 ships have already used it.
- In September, the trade dispute with Poland, Hungary, and Slovakia over the export of Ukrainian agricultural products to these markets deepened.
- The priority of the State Budget in 2024 will remain the financing of defence and security. International aid is not yet guaranteed and is crucial to finance other expenditures.
- In September, consumer inflation decelerated further and amounted to 7.1% yoy. However, price growth may accelerate slightly in the coming months.
- The slowdown in inflation led to a further cut in the key policy rate to 20% per annum. At the beginning of October, the NBU took the first step from a fixed hryvnia exchange rate to controlled exchange rate fluctuations. Changes in the hryvnia exchange rate against the dollar have been insignificant.
