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Monthly economic monitoring

  • Monthly Economic Monitor Ukraine 6-7 (212)

    21.08.2018
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    *Since 2018, the Monitor is awailable without subscription. Full version is attached.

    Highlight: Customs reform

    The full-scale implementation of the customs reform in Ukraine has not been implemented. Therefore, customs clearance in the country remains lengthy and complicated, which is reflected in Ukraine’s low positions in comparative international rankings. A new annual survey of exporters and importers in Ukraine conducted by the IER shows that a customs reform that would bring more transparency and reduce bureaucracy is necessary.

     

    Executive summery: 

    Politics:In June, the Verkhovna Rada adopted the Law “On High Anti-Corruption Court” and the Law “On National Security”.

    Real sector:The Ukrstat confirmed real GDP growth in the first quarter at 3.1% yoy. This reflected strong growth in capital investment and slower yet robust growth of consumer demand.

    Energy sector:The Cabinet of Ministers again terminated increase in gas prices for population, which puts under the risk the provision of the next tranche of loan by the IMF.

    Transport:The Cabinet of Ministers adopted in May the Transport Strategy until 2030 that sets the priorities of the sector development.

    Agriculture:In 2017/2018 marketing year Ukraine exported around 39.4 m of grain, which is 10% less than in 2016/2017 due to lower harvest.

    External sector:Current account deficit totalled USD 0.41 bn over the first five months of 2018.

    Fiscal policy: The central government run the deficit at UAH 9.8 bn in the first half of 2018, while local budgets reported cumulative surplus at UAH 20.2 bn.

    Social policy: In the end of July, the Pension Fund delayed the pensions payment for the first time for many years.

    Labour market: Unemployment rate (ILO methodology) in the first quarter of 2018 declined to 9.7% of economically active population in the age of 15-70 years old from 10.1% in the same period of 2017.

    Monetary policy: The NBU unexpectedly increased policy rate by 0.5 p.p. to 17.5% p.a. at the policy meeting in July.

    Exchange rate:Interbank UAH/USD exchange rate moved in the narrow range between UAH 26 and UAH 26.5 per USD in the second quarter of 2018.

    State debt:Fiscal sustainability risks remain high as the Government will have to make pick debt repayments in 2018 and 2019.

    Issue:  No.6-7 (212) June-July 2018
    Attached file  (855.1 kb)
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