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Monthly economic monitoring

  • Monthly Economic Monitor Ukraine No.5 (211)

    30.05.2018
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    *Since 2018, the Monitor is awailable without subscription. Full version is attached.

    Highlight: INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY RIGHTS

    Intellectual property (IP) protection and enforcement when done right are one of the fundamental conditions for innovation and competition. Ukraine’s strategic documents (in particular, Ukraine-2020 Strategy) list protection of IP rights among policy priority. However, the implementation of IP-related reforms remains slow. This was noticed by the Western partners of Ukraine (both the USA and the EU), that are expecting radical changes in the field of IPR protection and enforcement.

     

    Executive summary

    Politics: The Joint Forces Operation replaces the Anti-Terrorist Operation as the war in the eastern Ukraine enters its fifth year.

    Real sector: The Ukrstat released flash estimate of real GDP growth in the first quarter at 3.1% yoy. Growth was supported by the increase in domestic demand.

    Energy sector:The Naftogaz in May announced that separation of the Naftogaz natural gas transit business would be impossible until the end of the transit contract in 2019.

    Agriculture:As of April, Ukraine has exhausted six annual quotas for duty-free exports to the EU.

    External sector:Current account deficit increased to USD 0.76 bn in March from USD 0.51 bn in March 2017 due to increase in trade deficit and growth of net investment income payments abroad.

    Fiscal policy: Central fiscal revenues due to the general fund in the first quarter of 2018 were by 4.7% lower than officially planned, which indicates lack of fiscal space for increase in minimum wage.

    Social policy: The Government again has changed the eligibility criteria for the provision of housing and utility subsidies, which would likely result in lower number of households with the subsidies.

    Labour market:Growth of real wages slowed down to 9.5% yoy from around 20% yoy last year.

    Monetary policy: Consumer inflation moved to 13.1% yoy in April from 13.2% yoy in March. Strong increase in food prices remained a main driver of inflation.

    Exchange rate: Interbank UAH/USD exchange rate moved in narrow range close to UAH 26 per USD in April. Growing export revenues were balanced by strong import demand.

    State debt:Fitch Ratings confirmed Ukraine's Long-Term Foreign- and Local-Currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) at 'B-' with a Stable Outlook.

    Issue:  No.5 (211) May 2018
    Attached file  (240.1 kb)
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