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Monthly economic monitoring

  • Monthly Economic Monitor Ukraine No.6 (200)

    26.06.2017

    Highlight: 200 MONTHS

    We are happy to introduce the 200th issue of the IER Monthly Economic Monitor Ukraine. This means that we have presented short analysis of economic life of Ukraine for last 200 months. The first issue of the MEMU was issued in October 2000. During these months Ukraine’s economy went through some ups and downs. We try to list some of them.

    Overall, Ukraine faced many challenges during 2000 and 2017. However, they made the country somewhat stronger and more prosperous as the authorities had to implement reforms to survive. International partners have played the essential role as pushers for reforms. However, GDP per capita still remains very low as compared to neighboring countries, which urges for further reforms aimed at better welfare, higher efficiency, lower state capture and smaller corruption. 

    Politics:In May, Ukraine received first favorable decisions in the Stockholm Arbitration Court on the gas dispute between Ukraine's state-run oil and gas company Naftogaz and Russian gas supplier Gazprom.

    Real sector: According to the official baseline scenario real GDP is expected to increase by 1.8% in 2017, 3.0% in 2018, 3.6% in 2019, and 4.0% in 2020.

    Energy sector: In May, the Cabinet of Ministers approved the ambitious plan of the reform and development of the coal industry till 2020.

    Agriculture: The agricultural production in April declined by 0.3% yoy.

    External sector:Current account deficit reduced to USD 0.15 bn in April as merchandise trade deficit dropped to USD 0.48 bn.

    Fiscal policy: Between January and May consolidated fiscal revenues increased by 47.0% yoy due to higher tax and non-tax revenues.

    Social policy: The Government presented the draft law on the pension reform that includes steps towards streamlining the solidarity pillar of the pension system.

    Labour market: Average wage in April grew by 36.0% yoy in nominal terms and by 20.7% yoy in real terms due to increase in minimum wage.

    Monetary policy: Consumer inflation increased to 13.5% yoy in May reflecting high statistical base.

    Exchange rate: Interbank UAH/USD exchange rate continued to drift back to UAH 26 per USD as export revenues increased in May.

    State debt:Between January and April state debt grew by 4.7% in the US dollar equivalent.

    Issue:  No.6 (200) June 2017
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