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Monthly economic monitoring

  • Monthly Economic Monitor Ukraine No.11 (181)

    11.11.2015
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    Highlight: Trade with Russia

    Politics: Regular local elections were held on October 25. No party was able to gain a majority in any oblast (regional) council.

    Real sector: Decline in industrial output decelerated further to 5.1% yoy which partly reflects stabilisation of the situation in the East of Ukraine.

    Energy sector:In October, Ukraine imported 2.4 bn cubic meters of gas (bcm): 2 bcm from Russia and 0.4 bcm from Europe.

    Agriculture:Gross agricultural production in September decreased by 4.2% yoy due to lower crop harvest and decline in livestock production.

    External sector: Current account balance in September was positive at USD 0.1 bn as slight deficit of trade in goods was compensated by positive net exports of services.

    Fiscal policy: Higher than planned revenues, lower than planned debt and subsidy costs, delays in appropriating extra revenues resulted in the surplus of central government and local governments.

    Social policy: Between January and September the number of families that were granted housing and utility subsidies increased by 5.4 times to 2.6 million.

    Labour market:Real wage declined by 18.6% yoy as a result of bad financial results of companies, high inflation, and weak labour market.

    Monetary policy: CPI in October fell by 1.3% mom.

    Exchange rate: In October, interbank exchange rate remained in UAH 21-23 range set by the NBU but it moved closer to upper end of the range by the end of the month.

    State debt: Key internationalsovereign rating agencies upgraded Ukraine’s ratings for obligations in foreign currency.

    Issue:  No.11 (181) November 2015
    Attached file  (377.6 kb)
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