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Monthly economic monitoring

  • Monthly Economic Monitor Ukraine No.10 (180)

    13.10.2015
    Free

    Highlight: Winter is coming

    Politics: For the first time since the Russian aggression Ukraine imposed sanctions against companies and individuals related to the aggression.

    Real sector: Contraction of real GDP decelerated to 14.6% yoy in the second quarter of 2015 as compared to 17.6% yoy in the first three months of the year.

    Energy sector: The Naftogaz and the Gasprom finally reached an agreement on gas supplies in the last quarter of 2015 and in the first quarter of 2016. 

    Transport. Sanctions were imposed on Russian air carriers that perform flights to the occupied territory of Crimea.

    Agriculture:Between January and July 2015, grains exports increased by 15.0% yoy to 18.4 m tons.

    External sector: Exports fell due to drop in global prices for essential exports products, disruption in production caused by military conflict in the East, and trade tensions with Russia.

    Fiscal policy: As usual over the last years, the Government failed to prepare the draft State Budget Law for 2016 in time for Constitutional deadline.

    Social policy: Drop in real disposable income accelerated to 34.0% yoy in the second quarter of 2015.

    Labour market:As a consequence of economic recession, unemployment rate (ILO methodology) increased to 8.8% of economically active population at age 15-70 years old in the second quarter of 2015.

    Monetary policy: In September, monthly core inflation jumped to 3.0% mom, which reflected imperfect methodology of accounting for seasonal changes in prices for clothing and footwear.

    Exchange rate: In September, interbank exchange rate remained in UAH 21-23 range set by the NBU.

    State debt:On September 17, the Verkhovna Rada adopted the legislation needed for state bond restructuring and bondholder meeting.

    Issue:  No.10 (180) October 2015
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