Archive 2016

  • Monthly Economic Monitor Ukraine No.7 (189)


    Highlight: Brexit

    For Ukraine, Brexit will have limited impact on bilateral trade and investment with the UK if free trade with the UK is maintained. This may happen for example if the UK joins Lichtenstein, Norway, land and Switzerland in European Free Trade Association (EFTA) and its free trade agreement with Ukraine. Even if this is not the case the UK represents about 1% of Ukraine’s exports and less than 5% of FDI. Links between Ukrainian and British financial sector are also limited right now. 

    Politics:The war hostilities in Donbas escalated in June.

    Real sector: Real GDP in the first quarter of 2016 declined by seasonally adjusted 0.7% qoq and increased by only 0.1% from first quarter of 2015.

    Energy sector:The NERC almost doubled tariffs for thermal energy and heating for households since July 1.

    Agriculture:Gross agricultural production in May increased by 0.1% yoy.

    External sector: Current account in May was in surplus at USD 0.4 bn as compared to deficit at USD 0.1 bn in May 2015

    Fiscal policy: According to the preliminary information of the State Treasury, consolidated fiscal revenues in the first half of 2016 grew by 29.4% yoy partially due to negligent of VAT refunds.

    Social policy: Disposable income of households in the first quarter of 2016 increased by 11.3% yoy in nominal terms.

    Labour market: Unemployment rate increased to 9.9% of economically active population in age of 15-70 in the first quarter of 2016 as compared to 9.6% in the same period of last year.

    Monetary policy: Consumer inflation slowed to 6.9% yoy in June 2016 from 57.5% yoy in June 2015.

    Exchange rate: In June, hryvnia interbank exchange rate remained stable in the range of UAH 24.8-25.1 per USD.

    State debt:According to the Ministry of Finance, as of April 30, state debt grew by 7.5% in hryvnia equivalent or by 2.4% in the US dollar equivalent as compared to the end of 2015.



    Issue:  No.7 (189) July 2016
    Attached file  (294.1 kb)
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