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Archive 2015

  • Monthly Economic Monitor Ukraine No.1 (171)

    13.01.2015
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    Highlight: Year 2014 - THE YEAR IN REVIEW

    Politics: On December 23, the Verkhovna Rada abandoned Ukraine’s nonaligned status, which is a step toward membership in NATO.

    Real Sector: In November, the industrial output dropped by 16.3% yoy primarily due to military conflict in the East of Ukraine and decline in demand for Ukrainian goods from Russia.

    Energy sector: Ukraine negotiated electricity imports from Russia to cover electric energy shortages at peak hours and ease the problem with coal supplies to thermal power plants.

    Agriculture:The Parliament canceled the ban on sale of meat of backyard slaughtering and homemade dairy products planned from January, 2015.

    External sector: Financial and capital account was in deficit at USD 2.2 bn primarily due to debt repayment by the Naftogaz to the Gasprom.

    Fiscal policy: According to preliminary data of the State Treasury, central fiscal revenues (before VAT refund) in 2014 were by 8.2% or UAH 36.3 bn lower than target as both tax and non-tax revenues were under-executed. Planned central fiscal revenues for 2015 are too optimistic.

    Social policy: Subsistence minimum and, thus, minimum pension and minimum wage will remain unchanged until December 2015.

    Labour market: Unemployment rate (ILO methodology) increased to 9.5% of economically active population in age of 15-70 in the third quarter of 2014.

    Monetary policy: In December, consumer inflation reached 24.9% yoy, while month-to-month price increase accelerated 3.0% mom, the highest level since May.

    Exchange rate: In December, depreciation expectations increased and black market exchange rate increased sharply.

    State debt: By the end of 2014 state debt is estimated to reach near 70% of GDP (as compared to 40% in the end of 2013).

     

    Issue:  No.1 (171) January 2015
    Attached file  (356.4 kb)
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