Archive 2015

• 14.12.2015

  Monthly Economic Monitor Ukraine No.12 (182)

  Tax reform is again a major topic for debate in Ukrainian society. It is not surprising given narrow tax base, high burden of complying with tax regulations, low confidence in tax authorities and payroll tax burden similar to most socially oriented West European economies. As usual, business will likely receive new tax rules close to Christmas.
  
  Highlight: TAX REFORM
  Issue:  No.12 (182) December 2015
• 11.11.2015

  Monthly Economic Monitor Ukraine No.11 (181)

  It is settled that provisional application of Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) between Ukraine and the EU will start since January 1, 2016. In a response, Russia is expected to increase trade barriers vis-à-vis Ukrainian goods.
  
  Highlight: TRADE WITH RUSSIA
  Issue:  No.11 (181) November 2015
• 13.10.2015

  Monthly Economic Monitor Ukraine No.10 (180)

  The coming heating season of October 2015 – April 2016 may be the most challenging season for the Ukrainian energy sector since Ukraine’s independence. Each subsector of energy sector (coal sector, electricity generation, and gas sector) has its own challenges in addition to the general problems like military conflict in the East, currency depreciation, debt accumulation, and high inflation. Tackling those challenges is essential for the smooth passing of the coming heating season.
  
  Highlight: WINTER IS COMING
  Issue:  No.10 (180) October 2015
• 14.09.2015

  Monthly Economic Monitor Ukraine No.9 (179)

  In August the Cabinet of Ministers announced the successful completion of negotiations with creditors on state debt restructuring. Holders of Eurobonds will will receive portfolio of new Eurobonds from 9 new issues in equal proportions with total principal reduced by 20%. New bonds will mature in each of the years between 2019-2027. At the same time, the investors will be compensated for the haircut on new bonds with sovereign derivatives where payout is tied to GDP size and real GDP growth of Ukraine.
  
  Highlight: DEBT RESTRUCTURING
  Issue:  No.9 (179) September 2015
• 14.08.2015

  Monthly Economic Monitor Ukraine No.8 (178)

  On July 31, the IMF Executive Board completed the first review of Ukraine’s Extended Fund Facility (EFF) arrangement and approved disbursement of SDR 1.2 bn (USD 1.7 bn). Ukrainian Government met all performance criteria including structural indicators (reforms required). Budget deficit was better than planned, while exchange rate stabilised without sales of foreign currency reserves. The Verkhovna Rada implemented required changes in the NBU law, approved energy market reforms, and increased court fees. The Government proceeded on reforms of fiscal service and improved AML framework. The NBU continued efforts to clean up and stabilize financial sector. The National Anti-corruption Bureau was established. Besides, the Government made progress in deregulation and moved towards more efficient governance of state-owned companies. Still, more changes are promised to ensure continuation of the financial assistance from the IMF and other official donors.
  
  Highlight: REFORM AGENDA
  Issue:  No.8 (178) August 2015
• 13.07.2015

  Monthly Economic Monitor Ukraine No.7 (177)

  In June 2014, Ukraine finally signed the Association Agreement with the EU. A provisional application of the Agreement started on November 1, covering such areas of Ukraine-EU cooperation as the respect for human rights, fundamental freedoms and rule of law; political dialogue and reform; justice, freedom and security; and economic and financial cooperation.
  
  Highlight: ASSOCIATION AGREEMENT
  Issue:  No.7 (177) July 2015
• 12.06.2015

  Monthly Economic Monitor Ukraine No.6 (176)

  On April 9, the Verkhovna Rada adopted the Law of Ukraine “On the natural gas market” which was signed by the President in May and will become effective in October. The Law is an integral part of the big energy market reform and government efforts to decrease dependency from imported energy resources. Gas issues for a long time have been a political hot topic. Ukraine needs to decrease their political importance and start treating gas as any other tradable commodity.
  
  HIGHLIGHT: GAS MARKET REFORM
  Issue:  No.6 (176) June 2015
• 12.05.2015

  Monthly Economic Monitor Ukraine No.5 (175)

  In April consumer inflation reached 60.9% yoy. Introduction of new tariffs for gas and electricity in April added about 14 p.p. to consumer inflation. As a result, inflation reached the highest level since 1996.
  
  Highlight: INFLATION RECORDS
  Issue:  No.5 (175) May 2015
• 14.04.2015

  Monthly Economic Monitor Ukraine No.4 (174)

  In March, Ukraine’s government adopted the Action plan for reforms in 2015 and 2016 while the IMF board approved four-year USD 17.5 bn extended arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF).
  
  Highlight: REFORM AGENDA
  Issue:  No.4 (174) April 2015
• 12.03.2015

  Monthly Economic Monitor Ukraine No.3 (173)

  The industrial output in January dropped by 21.3% yoy due to protracted military conflict in Donbas and weak demand.
  
  Highlight: Unhealthy banks - IS THERE A HOPE FOR BANKING SYSTEM?

  Issue:  No.3 (173) March 2015
• 12.02.2015

  Monthly Economic Monitor Ukraine No.2 (172)

  Industrial output in December contracted by 17.9% yoy due to military conflict in Donbas (according to official statistics companies that stopped reporting to Ukrstat (e.g. in the conflict zone) are assumed to have stopped working).
  
  Highlight: State debt - STAT DEBT: CAN THE GOVERNMENT AVOID DEFAULT?

  Issue:  No.2 (172) February 2015
• 13.01.2015

  Monthly Economic Monitor Ukraine No.1 (171)

  In November the industrial output dropped by 16.3% yoy primarily due to military conflict in the East of Ukraine and decline in demand for Ukrainian goods from Russia. Machine building production contracted by 23.6% yoy due to lower domestic demand for investment goods and vehicles as well as decline in demand of Russia for locomotives and railway carriages.
  
  Highlight: Year 2014 - THE YEAR IN REVIEW

  Issue:  No.1 (171) January 2015