Archive 2014

  • Monthly Economic Monitor Ukraine No.6 (164)


    Highlight: War in Donbas - CIVIL WAR OR RUSSIAN AGGRESSION?

    Politics: On May 25, Petro Poroshenko was elected the new President of Ukraine. He gained a majority of votes in all regions of Ukraine for the first time in 23 years of its independence.

    Real Sector: Real GDP declined by 1.1% yoy in the first quarter of 2014. Investments dropped due to high political and economic uncertainty.

    Energy sector: The Naftogaz repaid only partially its debt to the Gasprom due to absence of agreement on the debt level, which is to be repaid in total.

    Agriculture: Exports of grain is expected to reach 32 m t in 2013/2014 marketing year, which is 28% higher than in the previous year.

    External sector: Current account balance (not including Crimea)in April was positive at USD 0.2 bn. Surplus was explained by decline in merchandise imports.

    Fiscal policy: According to the preliminary data of the State Treasury, central fiscal revenues grew by 11.2% yoy between January and May primarily due to higher transfer of NBU profits to the budget.

    Social policy:In July the Government will start paying special subsidies to households with per capita income below subsistence minimum to compensate for increase in utility tariffs.

    Labour market: In April average wage in Ukraine (not including Crimea) grew by 5.5% yoy in nominal terms, but declined by 1.3% yoy in real terms.

    Monetary policy: In May consumer inflation returned to double digits at 10.9% yoy for the first time since 2011.

    Exchange rate: In May hryvnia volatility decreased as average interbank exchange rate remained in UAH 11.4-11.8 per USD range.

    State debt: Ukraine received first tranches of loans from the IMF, the EU and the World Bank.

    Issue:  6 (164) June 2014
    Attached file  (189.8 kb)
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