Archive 2014

  • Monthly Economic Monitor Ukraine No.5 (163)


    Highlight: Stand-by Arrangement - MORE REFORMS, MORE SUPPORT – HIGHER STABILITY

    Politics: April was marked by further escalation of tensions with Russia and unrest in the Eastern Ukraine. The outlook for the conflict in Donetsk and Luhansk regions is likely to be negative as all attempts to resolve the situation through negotiation, including at the international level, failed.

    Real Sector: Manufacturing output in March dropped by 8.1% yoy due to weak domestic and external demand.

    Energy sector:Confrontation between the Naftogaz and Gasprom increased. In particular, the Naftogaz did not pay for received gas in April due to disagreement on price for gas.

    Agriculture: The overall expectation on the current marketing season remains rather optimistic due to favourable weather conditions.

    External sector: Current account deficit in March narrowed to USD 0.2bn a due to decline in merchandise imports.

    Fiscal policy: As the Government did not receive external funding it expected central fiscal expenditures (general fund) reached only 90.2% of target.

    Social policy:The Government has not approved this year’s budget of the Pension Fund so far.

    Labour market: In March, average wage growth accelerated to 5.8% yoy.

    Monetary policy: Consumer inflation surged to 6.9% yoy in April as effects of hryvnia depreciation trickled through to consumer prices.

    Exchange rate:In April hryvnia continued to weaken sharply in response to political instability as the NBU committed to the IMF to maintain flexible exchange rate.

    State debt: External financial support is expected in May.

    Issue:  5 (163) May 2014
    Attached file  (137.6 kb)
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