Highlight: Ukraine-Russia - FROM REVOLUTION TO EXTERNAL AGGRESSION
Politics:In the end of February the Parliament voted for a return to the Constitution of 2004, pushing the balance of power in favor of a parliamentary system, and appointed new Government. In the last two days of February Russian troops invaded Crimea.
Real Sector:Industrial output in January declined by 5% yoy from already low base of January 2013.
Energy sector:Fearing the raise in gas price, the Naftogaz doubled its daily gas purchase volumes in the beginning of March.
Agriculture: Grain exports could amount to a record 33 m t in 2013/2014 marketing year if transport operations in seaports were not interfered by Russian military operations.
External sector: Exports of goods in January dropped by 11.7% yoy primarily due to decline in agricultural exports and drop in exports of machinery and equipment.
Fiscal policy: In January, central fiscal revenues increased by 9.0% yoy (to UAH 25.3 bn), but they were under-executed by 20.6%.
Social policy:The Pension Fund reported that all pensions were paid in full even though during February there were some delays in pension payments as scheduled due to liquidity gaps faced by the Fund.
Labour market:Average wage growth in January decelerated to 4.9% yoy due to economic problems as well as political instability.
Monetary policy: Headline consumer inflation was reported at 1.2% yoy in February.
Financial markets:In February hryvnia exchange rate depreciated by 23% and reached its weakest historical point at UAH 11.25 per USD if we use market close interbank rate as our measure.
