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  • Monthly Economic Monitor Ukraine No.2 (160)

    12.02.2014
    Free

    Highlight: Budget 2014 - ARE THERE CHANCES TO SURVIVE?

    Politics: The Prime Minister of Ukraine Mykola Azarov stepped down on January, 28. According to the Constitution, resignation of Prime Minister resulted in the resignation of the Government.

    Real Sector: According to the preliminary Ukrstat estimate real GDP did not change in 2013.

    Energy sector: The Naftogaz again did not pay for gas to Russian Gazprom likely due to liquidity gap.

    Transport: The Cabinet of Ministers approved the Concept of the State Economic Program for Development of Passenger Automobile Industry until 2020

    Agriculture: Budget support of agriculture will increase in 2014, but its efficiency remains under the question.

    Privatisation: The fulfillment of the privatization plan for 2014 will be a real challenge for the Government.

    External sector: Financial and capital account surplus widened to USD 3.3 bn in December as the government raised USD 3 bn in Eurobonds from Russia and FDI surged to 0.6 bn.

    Fiscal policy: The Government postponed fiscal consolidation, which further increases fiscal sustainability risks.

    Social policy: Subsistence minimum and, as a result, minimum pension and minimum wage will be increased by 8.1% on average in 2014.

    Labour market: Regional difference in wages remained high in 2013 and only five regions paid wages higher than average in economy.

    Monetary policy: Headline consumer inflation was reported at 0.5% yoy in January.

    Financial markets: Interbank UAH/USD exchange rate changed from UAH 8.2-8.3 per USD in the beginning of the year to over UAH 8.5 in the end of January.

    Issue:  No.2 (160) February 2014
    Attached file  (516.8 kb)
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