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Archive 2013

  • Monthly Economic Monitor Ukraine No.7 (153)

    11.07.2013

    Highlight: Cash transactions limits - THE NBU SETS AN UPPER LIMIT ON CASH TRANSACTIONS TO UAH 150,000

    Politics: Ukraine made a few steps to resolve issues blocking the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement, but the progress was negligible. Chances that the Agreement will be signed in November are low.

    Real Sector: Performance of most sectors deteriorated in May. Industrial output dropped by 9.3% yoy.

    Energy sector: The Government requires an obligatory injection of 50% of natural gas volumes produced in Ukraine by independent private companies to the underground storage facilities. This measure might further worsen investment climate in the sector.

    Agriculture: The Memorandum of understanding for 2013/2014 marketing year was signed between the Ministry of Agricultural Policy of Ukraine and grain exporters, which might strengthen Ukraine’s positions at international market.

    External sector: International trade turnover in May fell to one of the lowest levels in 30 months (the lowest excluding seasonal minimums in January).

    Fiscal policy: Fiscal pressure increased in May, when central fiscal revenues dropped by 15.2% yoy. As a result, central fiscal expenditures were under-financed regardless sharp increase in central fiscal deficit.

    Social policy: Growth of real disposable households income decelerated to 7.6% yoy in the first quarter of 2013. Real private final consumption grew by only 4.5% yoy due to higher saving rate.

    Labour market: Employers refrain from laying off workers. As a result, unemployment rate (ILO methodology) remained at 8.0% of economically active population in age of 15-70 years old.

    Monetary policy: Inflation remained close to zero, which reflects recession in Ukrainian economy and slowdown in global economy, fixed utility prices, and lower prices of agricultural goods.

    Financial markets: In June the exchange rate remained stable as both demand for cash foreign currency and cashless foreign currency were broadly balanced.

    Issue:  No.7 (153) July 2013
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