Archive 2013

• 11.12.2013

  Monthly Economic Monitor Ukraine No.12 (158)

  Ukrstat revised upwards real GDP in the third quarter but it still declined by 1.3% yoy (as compared to preliminary estimate at 1.5% yoy). This was a fifth quarter of declining GDP on year-to-year basis. Real private final consumption growth at 6.7% yoy contributed 5 p.p to GDP growth.
  
  Highlight: Ukraine-EU - UKRAINE-EU: STRATEGIC PAUSE OR CHANGING THE COURSE

  Issue:  No.12 (158) December 2013
• 10.11.2013

  Monthly Economic Monitor Ukraine No.11 (157)

  According to the preliminary Ukrstat estimate real GDP dropped by 1.5% yoy in the third quarter of 2013. On demand side, negative contribution in real net exports and lower investments might be behind lower real GDP. Slowdown in consumption may have also contributed. On the production side, rainy weather in September did not allow agriculture to support economic growth.
  
  Highlight: “Doing Business” - DOING BUSINESS IN UKRAINE: RAPID INCREASE IN RATINGS BUT LITTLE SYSTEMIC CHANGES

  Issue:  No.11 (157) November 2013
• 11.10.2013

  Monthly Economic Monitor Ukraine No.10 (156)

  Industrial output in August declined by 5.4% yoy. In particular, manufacturing output dropped by 9.0% yoy due to weak domestic and external demand. External demand for Ukrainian goods was dampened to additional custom procedures introduced by Russia. For example, production of freight carriages dropped by 25% from July.
  
  Highlight: Moody’s rating - WERE THERE REASON TO DOWNGRADE THE RATING?

  Issue:  No.10 (156) October 2013
• 11.09.2013

  Monthly Economic Monitor Ukraine No.9 (155)

  According to the Ukrstat real GDP declined by 1.3% yoy in the second quarter of 2013. Only agriculture demonstrated strong growth of real gross value added (GVA) at 20.9% yoy. At the same time, GVA in trade increased only by 1.4% yoy due to deceleration in households’ income growth and decline in wholesale trade.
  
  Highlight: Recycling tax - RECYCLING TAX: CHANGES NEEDED

  Issue:  No.9 (155) September 2013
• 13.08.2013

  Monthly Economic Monitor Ukraine No.8 (154)

  According to preliminary Ukrstat estimate real GDP fell by 1.1% yoy in the second quarter of 2013 as in the first quarter. The factors are likely to be similar as before.
  
  Highlight: Fiscal policy - HIGH FISCAL PRESSURE CREATES INCENTIVES FOR REFORMS

  Issue:  No.8 (154) August 2013
• 11.07.2013

  Monthly Economic Monitor Ukraine No.7 (153)

  Industrial output in May dropped by 9.3% yoy as compared to 2.2% yoy in April due to lower number of working days, statistical base effect as well as decline in demand. As a result, all industrial sectors demonstrated decline with the largest contraction in machine building (at 18.1% yoy), which declined due to drop in external demand.
  
  Highlight: Cash transactions limits - THE NBU SETS AN UPPER LIMIT ON CASH TRANSACTIONS TO UAH 150,000

  Issue:  No.7 (153) July 2013
• 11.06.2013

  Monthly Economic Monitor Ukraine No.6 (152)

  The Ukrstat revised its preliminary estimate of real GDP growth in the first quarter of 2013 up by 0.2 p.p. to -1.1% yoy. On the demand side, real private final consumption growth (at 4.5% yoy) and increase in gross fixed capital accumulation (at 4.0% yoy) made positive contribution to real GDP growth.
  
  Highlight: Hryvnia - EXCHANGE RATE PROPPED UP BY ADMINISTRATIVE MEASURES

  Issue:  No.6 (152) June 2013
• 13.05.2013

  Monthly Economic Monitor Ukraine No.5 (151)

  According to the `flash’ Ukrstat estimate in the first quarter of 2013 real GDP fell by 1.3% yoy probably reflecting falling investments and exports, while consumption growth slowed down. At the same time, GDP is estimated to have increased by 0.5% as compared to the last quarter of 2012 on seasonally adjusted basis.
  
  Highlight: Fiscal policy - FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY RAISES CONCERNS

  Issue:  No.5 (151) May 2013
• 11.04.2013

  Monthly Economic Monitor Ukraine No.4 (150)

  Drop in industrial output in February accelerated to 6.0% yoy as improvement in external demand was insufficient to lift export-oriented sectors.
  
  Highlight: Safeguards on Imported Cars - EXPECTED IMPACT OF SAFEGUARD MEASURES ON IMPORTED MOTOR CARS

  Issue:  No.4 (150) April 2013
• 11.03.2013

  Monthly Economic Monitor Ukraine No.3 (149)

  In January 2013 industrial output declined by 3.2% yoy due to reduction in production of export-oriented goods. In particular, weak export demand resulted in drop of output in metallurgy (by 8.6% yoy) and in machine building (by 7.8% yoy).
  
  Highlight: Ukraine-EU Summit - UKRAINE AND EU: MOMENT OF DEFINITION

  Issue:  No.3 (149) March 2013
• 11.02.2013

  Monthly Economic Monitor Ukraine No.2 (148)

  Real GDP in the last quarter of 2012 dropped by 2.7% yoy likely to decline in exports and investments. Based on two-quarters of declining real GDP definition Ukrainian economy is currently in recession.
  
  Highlight: IMF - IMF AND UKRAINE: MERRY-GO-ROUND

  Issue:  No.2 (148) February 2013
• 16.01.2013

  Monthly Economic Monitor Ukraine No.1 (147)

  According to Ukrstat real GDP declined by 1.3% yoy in the third quarter of 2012. Real private final consumption remained the major driving force of economic growth.
  
  Highlight: Year 2012 - THE YEAR IN REVIEW

  Issue:  No.1 (147) January 2013