Archive 2012

• Monthly Economic Monitor Ukraine No.12 (146)

  11.12.2012
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  • Highlight: State Budget 2013 - RESTRICTED FISCAL REVENUES SHAPED NEXT YEAR’S BUDGET
  • Politics: Slowdown in economic activities and increased fiscal and debt sustainability risks negatively impacted Ukraine’s ratings by the international ratings services.
  • Real Sector: Performance of most industrial sectors was less negative in October.
  • Energy sector: The Government intensified attempts aimed at higher gas supply diversification.
  • Agriculture: Government measures to support domestic agrimachinery production might turn out to be inefficient.
  • External sector: Current account deficit reached highest post-crisis value at USD 1.6 bn in October, while financial and capital account swung to USD 0.4 bn deficit.
  • Fiscal policy: Under-execution of central fiscal revenues and expenditures is expected to be record in 2012.
  • Social policy: The Pension Fund’s deficit remains high. It is financed at the expense of direct central fiscal transfer as well as non-transparent loan provided by the State Treasury.
  • Labour market: Minimum wage will be increased by 4.9% on average in 2013, which would restrict average wage growth.
  • Monetary policy: In November CPI fell by 0.2% yoy after three months of zero inflation.
  • Financial markets: The NBU introduced administrative restrictions on FX market, which are unlikely to be efficient in the ling run.
  Issue:  No.12 (146) December 2012