Archive 2000

  • Monthly Economic Monitor Ukraine No.1



    • The Ukrainian economy kept growing for the 9th month in a row. The GDP increase is expected to reach 3.2% in 2000, but a slowdown next year seems likely.
    • In the light of continuing good export performance, the current account could post a surplus of 2.5% of GDP in 2000, yet import growth is likely to outpace exports in the months ahead for seasonal reasons.
    • In view of the good budget performance a balanced budget is achievable in 2000. The budget for 2001 was adopted by Parliament in first reading, a slight deficit is likely because assumptions seem too optimistic. The inflation rate could stay above 30% until the end of the year. In 2001, a more restrictive monetary policy could result in a slowdown in the price increase.
    • The Hryvnia exchange rate remained stable due to National Bank interventions in the inter-bank market. A controlled nominal depreciation is expected to avoid a further real appreciation.
    Issue:  No.1 October 2000
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