Macroeconomic forecast

  • Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine - oronacrisis (April, 2020)


    We expect substantial damage to the economy from domestic restrictions and lower external demand. A gradual recovery is expected in the second half of 2020, but economic activity will remain lower than the pre-crisis level.

    We project real GDP to fall by 5.9% in 2020. Consumer inflation is forecasted to accelerate only to 7.5% yoy in December as weak demand will limit the impact of higher inflation expectations and weaker hryvnia. We used UAH 28.7 per USD as an average 2020 exchange rate in forecast calculations.

    This forecast was done during great uncertainty and thus may become irrelevant in a matter of weeks if not days. Still, we believe it a useful exercise that may help guide economic policy and business decisions.

    The pdf-file is attached below

    Issue:  1 (112), April 2020
    Attached file  (134.2 kb)

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