Economic activity in the first half of 2016 real GDP increased by 0.8% yoy, which was lower than we expected. This is primarily related to the Russia’s policies to ban Ukrainian imports and restrict transit of Ukrainian goods through its territory as well as logistical disruption in Donbas. In the second half of the year, we expect that economy will develop according to our previous expectations. Still, we are likely to downgrade or estimate of real GDP to 1.1-1.3% in 2016.
High economic and political uncertainty will negatively influence the actual path of economic recovery. Economic growth next year is expected to be supported by growth of investments. Overall, real GDP is likely to grow at about 3% in 2017.