Economic activity in the first half of 2016 was notably higher than in the first half of 2015. However, this represented bounce from the bottom rather than genuine economic growth. Consumer demand remained weak and growth observed in most sectors of Ukrainian economy will likely slow down in the second half of 2016. Still, ramp up in defence spending and return to regular investment planning will likely help GDP to increase in 2016.
For 2017, we will likely maintain key elements of our forecast. Consumer demand will be supported by less restrictive social policy including increases in pensions and welfare payments. Real GDP is forecasted to grow by 3.3%.
