Macroeconomic forecast

  • Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine - Road to recovery continues


    Ukrainian economy improved over first months of 2016 as expected. Some sectors reported double-digit growth as compared to the first months of 2015. Year-to-year growth will likely slow down as economy stabilized in the second half of 2015. As a result, real GDP growth in 2016 is unlikely to exceed 2%. External conditions were favourable for exports in April and May but they probably would not become much better over the rest of 2016. Inflation forecast may need to be revised to account for higher than projected increase in gas, water and heating tariffs but effect would likely be muted.

    So far, we see no major factors that would materially change our 2017 outlook for Ukrainian economy. It is expected to inch closer to medium-term growth (at 4-5%).We assume moderate increase in prices for Ukrainian exports and project improved consumer confidence as well as more stable financial sector. Real GDP is forecasted to grow by 3.3%.

    Issue:  No.5 (104) May 2016

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