Macroeconomic forecast

  • Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine - Political uncertainty increases risks for growth


    Real GDP in 2016 is expected to grow by 1.7%. However, political uncertainty made downward risk for the forecast more severe as prolonged political crisis will damage both medium-term growth prospects and short-term macroeconomic stability. It has already delayed the next tranche of the IMF loan and may lead to delays in other funding. This will reduce further the flexibility of the NBU in dealing with hryvnia volatility. In particular, depreciation expectations increased more than previously expected due to domestic instability, falling global financial market, and collapse in commodity prices.

    Our outlook for 2017 remains currently unchanged. Real GDP is forecasted to grow by 3.2% due to increase in both external and domestic demand.

    Issue:  No.2 (101) February 2016

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