Macroeconomic forecast

  • Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine - Stability in stagnation


    Real GDP will likely start to recover later than expected due to low domestic demand and weakness in external demand from emerging markets. Real GDP fell by 14.7% yoy in the second quarter and economic activity in July was stable but weak. Thus, we will likely revise our projection of 2015 GDP decline to over 10%. If our major assumptions hold real GDP is expected to increase by over 2% in 2016. Escalation of war and populist decisions remain the major risks of the forecast.

    Issue:  No.8 (95) August 2015

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