Macroeconomic forecast

  • Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine quarterly issue - Growth delayed for another year


    GDP: The Institute expects real GDP of Ukraine (including Crimea) to drop by 3.5% in 2014. However, risks remain high as Russian annexation of Crimea and Russian-provoked unrest in the Eastern, make Ukraine’s future highly uncertain.

    Fiscal Indicators: Amended legislation decreased risk of delays in wages and social payments in the public sector but situation remains difficult.

    Balance of Payments: Current account deficit is projected to decrease to 5.6% of GDP in response to hryvnia depreciation. However, trade disruption with Russia and high price for Russian gas hamper adjustment.

    Monetary Survey: Consumer inflation is projected to jump to 9.6% on average in 2014 in response to hryvnia depreciation and higher tariffs for gas and heating. Low consumer demand is expected to prevent inflation from going higher.

    Issue:  3 (78) March 2014
    Research spheres:  Macroeconomics

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