The outlook of future economic development in Ukraine is highly uncertain. Political situation remains very fragile. Assuming political uncertainty is resolved external aid will likely help stabilize situation in economy.
Ukraine is likely to receive new IMF program, which is expected to be supplemented by the aid from other IFIs and bilateral donors. Austerity measures will likely be needed to reduce fiscal gap and are likely to be among conditions for external aid.
After the first quarter exchange rate is expected to remain at UAH 9-10 per USD. Inflation will be significantly higher than it was previously expected.
