Macroeconomic forecast

• 03.04.2020

  Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine - Сoronacrisis (April, 2020)

  We expect substantial damage to the economy from domestic restrictions and lower external demand. A gradual recovery is expected in the second half of 2020, but economic activity will remain lower than the pre-crisis level. We project real GDP to fall by 5.9% in 2020. Consumer inflation is forecasted to accelerate only to 7.5% yoy in December as weak demand will limit the impact of higher inflation expectations and weaker hryvnia. We used UAH 28.7 per USD as an average 2020 exchange rate in forecast calculations.
  Issue:  №1 (112), April 2020
  Authors:  Kravchuk Vitaliy, Movchan Veronika
• 08.03.2017

  Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine - Recovery continues

  The economic growth in 2017 will be again supported by the increase in domestic demand. Sharp increase in minimum wage is expected to contribute to higher real private final consumption. It will somewhat restricted the investment growth. Larger domestic demand will stimulate imports growth. Exports growth will be limited by weak external demand and logistic problems. According to the IER baseline scenario, real GDP in 2017 is projected to grow by 2.8%. If disruption of economic relations with the occupied part of the Donbas continues we might downgrade our projections
  Issue:  No.1-2 (111), January-February 2017
  Authors:  Betliy Oleksandra, Kravchuk Vitaliy
• 10.01.2017

  Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine - Gradual recovery is projected to ramp up in 2018

  Real GDP is estimated to grow by 1.4% in 2016 due to domestic demand growth. Purchasing power of Ukrainians increased primarily due to higher wage income as wages started to catch up with inflation observed in 2014 and 2015.
  Issue:  №11-12 (110) November-December 2016
  Authors:  Betliy Oleksandra, Kravchuk Vitaliy