Macroeconomic forecast


The MEFU includes the IER’s forecast of the GDP and its components, disposable income and unemployment rate, fiscal indicators, balance of payments, inflation, exchange rate for current and next years. There are 12 issues per year. Quarterly issues (published in January, April, July and October) present new and revised estimates, while monthly issues focus more on recent trends and define the direction of possible forecast revision in the quarterly issue.

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2015      2014      2013      2012      2011      2010         2009      

2008       2007        2006         2005         2004         2003         2002 

  • 03.04.2020

    Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine - oronacrisis (April, 2020)

    We expect substantial damage to the economy from domestic restrictions and lower external demand. A gradual recovery is expected in the second half of 2020, but economic activity will remain lower than the pre-crisis level. We project real GDP to fall by 5.9% in 2020. Consumer inflation is forecasted to accelerate only to 7.5% yoy in December as weak demand will limit the impact of higher inflation expectations and weaker hryvnia. We used UAH 28.7 per USD as an average 2020 exchange rate in forecast calculations.
    Issue:  1 (112), April 2020
  • 08.03.2017

    Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine - Recovery continues

    The economic growth in 2017 will be again supported by the increase in domestic demand. Sharp increase in minimum wage is expected to contribute to higher real private final consumption. It will somewhat restricted the investment growth. Larger domestic demand will stimulate imports growth. Exports growth will be limited by weak external demand and logistic problems. According to the IER baseline scenario, real GDP in 2017 is projected to grow by 2.8%. If disruption of economic relations with the occupied part of the Donbas continues we might downgrade our projections
    Issue:  No.1-2 (111), January-February 2017
  • 10.01.2017

    Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine - Gradual recovery is projected to ramp up in 2018

    Real GDP is estimated to grow by 1.4% in 2016 due to domestic demand growth. Purchasing power of Ukrainians increased primarily due to higher wage income as wages started to catch up with inflation observed in 2014 and 2015.
    Issue:  11-12 (110) November-December 2016
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