Archive 2016

  • 10.11.2016

    Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine - Recovery is real

    Real GDP is estimated to grow at 1.1% in 2016 due to increase in domestic demand. Real net exports is expected to make a negative contribution to economic growth as imports starts growing this year. We do not expect any shocks materialising by the end of this year.
    Issue:  No.10 (109) October 2016
  • 07.10.2016

    Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine - Recovery goes on despite global gloom

    Economy of Ukraine is projected to return to growth in 2016. The recovery will be slow but it is expected to continue despite external and internal risks to growth. Economic growth prospects are becoming lower in China as well as the EU. Domestic risks are also high including escalation of the war in the East of Ukraine as well as delays or termination of reforms.
    Issue:  No.9 (108) September 2016
  • 05.09.2016

    Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine - Slow way to recovery

    Economic activity in the first half of 2016 real GDP increased by 0.8% yoy, which was lower than we expected. This is primarily related to the Russias policies to ban Ukrainian imports and restrict transit of Ukrainian goods through its territory as well as logistical disruption in Donbas.
    Issue:  No.8 (107) August 2016
  • 01.08.2016

    Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine - Positive signs emerge

    Economic activity in the first half of 2016 increased as compared to the first half of 2015, but was lower than expected. This to large degree reflected difficulties in moving products and inputs to their customers. We project that economic activity will increase in the remainder of 2016 as logistical problems reduce and external conditions improve. Thus, we will likely keep our forecast of GDP growth in 2016.
    Issue:  No.7 (106) July 2016
  • 03.07.2016

    Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine - Slowly to recovery

    For 2017, we will likely maintain key elements of our forecast. Consumer demand will be supported by less restrictive social policy including increases in pensions and welfare payments. Real GDP is forecasted to grow by 3.3%.
    Issue:  No.6 (105) June 2016
  • 02.06.2016

    Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine - Road to recovery continues

    Real GDP growth in 2016 is unlikely to exceed 2%. External conditions were favourable for exports in April and May but they probably would not become much better over the rest of 2016. Inflation forecast may need to be revised to account for higher than projected increase in gas, water and heating tariffs but effect would likely be muted.
    Issue:  No.5 (104) May 2016
  • 04.05.2016

    Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine - 2017 recovery in Ukraine

    We expect slow but steady recovery to take hold in 2017. However, there are many risks of the forecast.
    Issue:  No.4 (103) April 2016
  • 04.04.2016

    Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine - Stable instability

    We expect to revise 2016 real GDP growth forecast down to 1-1.5%. This reflects adjustments related to release of 2015 GDP and effects of recent exchange rate volatility on domestic demand. Political instability remains a source of downward risk for the forecast. While moderate amounts of political infighting are part of our base scenario, long-term political crisis may be more damaging as it may hurt confidence, delay reform agenda and derail cooperation with international donors.
    Issue:  No.3 (102) March 2016
  • 02.03.2016

    Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine - Political uncertainty increases risks for growth

    Our outlook for 2017 remains currently unchanged. Real GDP is forecasted to grow by 3.2% due to increase in both external and domestic demand. However, political uncertainty made downward risk for the forecast more severe
    Issue:  No.2 (101) February 2016
  • 08.02.2016

    Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine - Recovery on the horizon

    The beginning of 2016 is associated with downward trend for prices on commodities, which puts additional pressure on Ukraines exports. Decline in prices for imported crude oil and gas does not compensate for lower nominal exports, which results in higher than previously expected exchange rate vulnerability. Demand for foreign currency also increased due to high fiscal spending in the end of 2015 as well as increased depreciation expectations associated with crash in global stock markets and stalled IMF program.
    Issue:  No.1 (100) January 2016
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