Archive 2015

  • Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine - A degree of stability remains


    Recent Ukrstat data confirm that Ukrainian economy stabilized to some degree over the last few months. Inflation went down, exchange rate fluctuated within narrow range, retail sales and industrial production stopped falling. This is expected to allow economic activity to increase slightly in the second half of 2015 and limit the drop in GDP to around 9%. Recent approval of the first review of the EFF with IMF marks continued commitment to key reforms. However, populist politicians become more vocal as local elections near and ruling coalition remains fragile. Thus, political instability and failed cooperation with donors remain the key risk of the forecast. Low-level military action in the Eastern Ukraine continues as we assumed in our projections but risk of escalation remains high.  

    Issue:  No.7 (94) July 2015

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