Archive 2015

  • Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine - Threats to economic recovery remain high


    Executive summary

    The IER revised its forecast to take into account higher inflation and lower exports in the first half of 2015. Real GDP is expected to decline by 9.2% in 2015 and grow by 2.1% in 2016 under assumptions of stabilisation in the Eastern Ukraine and fulfilment of reform program.

    At the same time, the risk of return to populistic policies increased, which threatens economic development in the country. In particular, the approval of populistic measures will result in termination of assistance from the IMF and other official donors. This would mean further hryvnia depreciation and bigger inflation. As a result, real private final consumption and investments will decline more than currently expected.

    Issue:  No.6 (93) June 2015

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