The outlook of future economic development in Ukraine is highly uncertain. Political situation remains very fragile. Assuming political uncertainty is resolved external aid will likely help stabilize situation in economy.
The outlook of future economic development in Ukraine is highly uncertain. Political situation remains very fragile. Assuming political uncertainty is resolved external aid will likely help stabilize situation in economy.
According to the preliminary Ukrstat estimate real GDP growth was at zero in 2013, while we expected real GDP to decline by 0.4%. In particular, real GDP grew sharply in the fourth quarter of 2013 (by 3.7% yoy), which was higher than we expected.
Real GDP is estimated to grow in the last quarter of 2013 after five quarters of decline. On the production side, growth was supported by strong growth of agriculture due to record grain harvest. On the demand side, growth was supported by positive contribution of real final private consumption and of lower decrease in inventories. Still, real GDP is expected to decline by 0.4% in 2013.