Archive 2014

• 02.01.2015

  Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine – monthly issue

  According to the IER estimate real GDP drop is likely to decelerate to near 4% in 2015 from around 7% in 2014. Real private final consumption will continue declining in 2015, while real gross capital accumulation will be close to 2014 level. External demand will remain weak, while demand from Russia is expected to decline further.

  Issue:  No.12 (87) December 2014
  Authors:  Kravchuk Vitaliy, Betliy Oleksandra, Kovalchuk Artur, Ryzhenkov Mykola, Stepaniuk Oleksa
• 01.12.2014

  Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine – monthly issue

  Real GDP in 2014 is likely to decline by near 7%. We expect that the Government will be able to serve its external and domestic debt in time and in full over next months.

  Issue:  No.11 (86) November 2014
  Authors:  Kravchuk Vitaliy, Betliy Oleksandra, Kovalchuk Artur, Ryzhenkov Mykola, Stepaniuk Oleksa
• 03.11.2014

  Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine – monthly issue

  According to “flash” estimate real GDP declined by 5.1% yoy in the third quarter of 2014, which is less than we expected. On demand side, real private final consumption might have been higher than estimated by the IER.

  Issue:  No.10 (85) October 2014
  Authors:  Stepaniuk Oleksa, Ryzhenkov Mykola, Kovalchuk Artur, Betliy Oleksandra, Kravchuk Vitaliy
• 01.10.2014

  Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine – quarterly issue - Rough times ahead

  The Institute revised downwards the forecast for 2014 and 2015 to take into account increasingly devastating effects of prolonged military conflict in Donbas. Real GDP is expected to decline by 7.6% in 2014 and 2.2% in 2015. GDP projected for the next year represents significant improvement of economic activity as compared to the second half of 2014 and we expect that most regions of Ukraine will be able to increase their output in the 2015.

  Issue:  No.9 (84) September 2014
  Authors:  Stepaniuk Oleksa, Ryzhenkov Mykola, Kovalchuk Artur, Betliy Oleksandra, Kravchuk Vitaliy
• 01.09.2014

  Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine – monthly issue

  The military conflict in the Eastern Ukraine has escalated in the end of August and its resolution becomes more distant. This means that our assumption of the post-war stabilization in the last quarter of 2014 will likely not hold unless political solution will be found in the next weeks.

  Issue:  No.8 (83) August 2014
  Authors:  Kravchuk Vitaliy, Betliy Oleksandra, Kovalchuk Artur, Ryzhenkov Mykola, Stepaniuk Oleksa
• 01.08.2014

  Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine – monthly issue

  In the second half of 2014 we expect economic downturn to deepen due to prolonged conflict in Eastern Ukraine and related damage to infrastructure. Fiscal tightening approved to comply with IMF program will also impact economic activity. Real GDP may fall by 6-7% yoy in the second half of the year after real GDP fell by 3% yoy between January and June. Exchange rate will appreciate slightly after conflict ends in the Eastern Ukraine.

  Issue:  No.7 (82) July 2014
  Authors:  Kravchuk Vitaliy, Betliy Oleksandra, Kovalchuk Artur, Ryzhenkov Mykola, Stepaniuk Oleksa
• 03.07.2014

  Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine – quarterly issue - Risks of the forecast remain high

  Real GDP is expected to decline by 3.5% in 2014. Crucial assumption that makes our forecast possible is that unrest in the Eastern part of Ukraine will calm down by the end of summer and the confrontation with Russia will not reach open war.

  Issue:  No. 6 (81) June 2014
  Authors:  Betliy Oleksandra, Kravchuk Vitaliy, Kovalchuk Artur, Ryzhenkov Mykola, Stepaniuk Oleksa
• 02.06.2014

  Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine – monthly issue

  According to the recent consensus forecast, which was compiled by the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade in the beginning of May, real GDP is expected to drop by 4.6% in 2014. This is more pessimistic forecast that the IER’s estimate of 3.3% drop. In particular, we expect larger positive contribution of net real exports to real GDP growth.

  Issue:  No.5 (80) May 2014
  Authors:  Betliy Oleksandra, Kravchuk Vitaliy
• 30.04.2014

  Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine – monthly issue

  According to the flash estimate real GDP declined by 1.1% in the first quarter of 2014 in response to falling investments and government consumption. Investments were likely to be weak due to financial constraints as well as high political and economic uncertainty.

  Issue:  №4 (79) April 2014
  Authors:  Kravchuk Vitaliy, Betliy Oleksandra
• 16.04.2014

  Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine – quarterly issue - Growth delayed for another year

  The Institute expects real GDP of Ukraine (including Crimea) to drop by 3.5% in 2014. However, risks remain high as Russian annexation of Crimea and Russian-provoked unrest in the Eastern, make Ukraine’s future highly uncertain.

  Issue:  №3 (78) March 2014
  Authors:  Betliy Oleksandra, Kravchuk Vitaliy
  Research spheres:  Macroeconomics