According to the IER estimate real GDP drop is likely to decelerate to near 4% in 2015 from around 7% in 2014. Real private final consumption will continue declining in 2015, while real gross capital accumulation will be close to 2014 level. External demand will remain weak, while demand from Russia is expected to decline further.
Major risks of the forecast include escalation of military conflict in the East and delayed reforms. Economy is likely to return to small growth in 2016 only under the assumption of effective and timely reforms.
