Archive 2013

  • Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine monthly issue


    Ukraine’s GDP is expected to fall by 0.3-0.5% in 2013 despite 1.3% fall in the first three quarters. Shaky trade relations with Russia and muddy fiscal outlook add uncertainty to short-term projections.

    Fiscal outlook became even more complicated as the Government was forced to delay social payments to cover debt service. In 2014 the Government will have to either regain access to external market financing or  to accept conditions of IMF program to avoid cutting social spending.

    We are not likely to revise materially our projections of inflation and exchange rate for 2014.

    Issue:  No.10 (74) October 2013

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