Moody’s downgrade of Ukraine’s credit rating to Caa1 does not reflect increase in general economic risks but will hamper access to external funding in near future.
The Association Agreement with the EU (if signed) may become driver for medium-term economic growth through its role as anchor for reforms and improved business climate.
Fiscal situation will be difficult in the last quarter leading to discretionary cuts in spending and higher domestic borrowing.
Real GDP is likely to fall in 2013 reflecting recession observed in three quarters of 2013, while trade tensions with Russia may lead to real GDP growth at 1% in 2014
