Archive 2013

  • Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine monthly issue


    Real GDP dropped by 1.1% yoy in the first quarter of 2013, which is similar to our expectations, although contributions of components were different. Increase in real gross fixed capital accumulation is likely attributed to one-off investments in the energy sector. At the same time, deceleration of real final private consumption is explained by decrease in food consumption, which is inconsistent with data on food production and imports.

    Economic slowdown and financial constraints increased fiscal pressure in May. In particular, consolidated tax revenues dropped likely due to economic slowdown.

    Overall, we are likely to revise downwards our real GDP growth estimate as well as fiscal sector forecast for 2013 and 2014.

    Issue:  No.6 (70) June 2013

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