External conditions remain volatile and uncertain. Marked improvement in external demand for Ukrainian products is unlikely but energy prices may also be lower than previously expected. Still, Ukrainian government and private sector will likely maintain access to global financial markets.
Ukraine had some progress in trade relations with the Customs Union and the EU. Ukraine became closer to observer status in Customs Union. At the same time, the EU unveiled plans for DCFTA to become effective in 2014 if Association agreement is signed in November. If DCFTA is effective in 2014 impact on trade will likely be limited unless Russia resorts to drastic action to sabotage DCFTA.
On domestic front Ukrainian economy stagnated in the first half of 2013 but some encouraging signs were observed in April. Overall, real GDP growth may reach 1.4% only under optimistic scenario.
